From Porter Stansberry in the S&A Digest:
Nobody likes bad news.
A few years ago, I got in hot water by insisting General Motors
was bankrupt. Supporters of the company (whether investors or
unionized employees) got mad at me and said I was exaggerating.
They rightly pointed out GM was still servicing its debts and
was still owned by its equity holders. Thus, technically at
least, GM wasn't bankrupt.
In order to avoid any unnecessary litigiousness, I began to
write in parody, pretending to be the chairman of General Motors
and warning of the company's impending bankruptcy. One of the
few ways you can still speak unpleasant truths in America is by
using - or pretending to use - humor. That's why, for example,
Chris Rock and Bill Cosby are our most poignant commentators on
race relations and why John Stewart is perhaps our most
insightful news commentator.
Meanwhile, the bankruptcy of General Motors was far from a
laughing matter.
GM had no conceivable way to repay its debts. It was even
borrowing money to pay for the interest expense on its existing
debts.
Monitoring the company closely between 2006 and 2009 taught me
quite a bit about willful self-deception. Here are the three key
traits I look for now in companies facing major financial
stress...
No. 1. There's never any real tally of the total amount owed. GM
used byzantine accounting to hide the truth of its deteriorating
fiscal condition for nearly 20 years. It was impossible for any
outside analyst to get an accurate, consolidated account of GM's
total debt.
No. 2. None of the company's "turnaround" plans
include any efforts to actually repay principal amounts owed.
No. 3. The company's spending is out of control. In GM's case,
it was also rife with fraud and absurdity - like, for example,
its jobs bank where people were paid not to work.
If you don't know how much you owe, if you make no attempt to
ever repay your debts, and if your spending is out of control,
there's no way to avoid bankruptcy. In retrospect, these facts
seem so plain and obvious. But who else was warning about GM? No
one.
I bring this up to you today because the exact same things are
now true about the United States of America.
We don't know how much we owe. We don't have any plan to repay
our debt. And our spending is still completely out of control...
OBAMA! has sent a new budget to Congress. It contains several
provisions that will make people unhappy. Taxes are going up on
the rich. They're going up on private-equity firms and hedge
funds. They're going up on oil and gas companies. And they're
going up on multinational companies.
These new taxes are what you'll see people arguing about. They
are what the politicians will complain and campaign about.
Nobody wants to pay the costs of government, so that's the easy
sell. But the taxes aren't the real problem with OBAMA!'s
budget...
The real problem is that government spending is literally out of
control.
The government is going to reduce its so-called
"discretionary" spending by a grand total of $200
billion. Only about $1.4 trillion of the government's $3.8
trillion budget is discretionary. The rest is legally required,
thanks to unfunded entitlement programs, like Medicare. So right
now, far less than half of the government's annual budget can
legally be restrained.
Meanwhile, there's no accurate tally of the government's debt.
Supposedly, we owe around $12 trillion. This number is so large
that it is meaningless. What does it really mean? According to
the IRS, almost 143 million people filed tax returns in 2007
(the most recently reported year).
Of these people, roughly 96 million paid something in taxes -
even one penny. Thus, technically, you could say there are
basically 100 million taxpayers in the United States. Dividing
the total debt ($12 trillion) by the number of taxpayers, you
can see our total debt is actually $120,000 per taxpayer. How
many people do you know can afford an additional $120,000 in
debt?
And the truth is, the $12 trillion figure is only a down payment
on our actual debts.
For example, nobody really knows how much more money Fannie and
Freddie will require. (My bet is $500 billion each - or $1
trillion.) On Christmas Eve, when no one was looking, Congress
approved unlimited funding for the two national mortgage banks.
And that's far from the only "off-budget" item. We
have committed to fighting two civil wars - in Iraq and
Afghanistan. The costs are likely to be $50 billion or so next
year alone. How much over the next 10 years? Maybe $1 trillion?
Or maybe more. And there's a new "jobs package" that's
estimated to cost $76 billion next year with another $25 billion
to bail out cash-strapped state governments.
Even if you only looked at the dollar amounts that have been
budgeted today and you ignored all of the rest of the growth of
future entitlement spending, you'll discover that we actually
owe something around $20 trillion right now.
And if $20 trillion is the real number, then the amount owed by
taxpayers is actually $200,000 each. Of course, that's if you're
counting all of the taxpayers. Most people, though, pay almost
nothing in taxes. Unless you're earning more than $50,000 per
year, you're not really contributing to the tax receipts.
Roughly 50 million folks are in this category. These people pay
less than 10% of all income tax receipts. So you shouldn't count
on them to repay much, if any, of these debts - they can't.
What's the real per-capita number? My best estimate - just on
the money we actually owe today - is $400,000 per taxpayer. At a
reasonable (6%) rate of interest that's $24,000 each - just to
pay the interest on these debts each year. How many people do
you know that could afford $24,000 a year in higher taxes? How
many people can afford additional debts of $400,000?
My point? Our government is bankrupt - right now, today. Sure,
it might still have access to the credit markets. And yes, since
it owes dollars, it can always simply print more. I realize the
government can't go bankrupt they way GM did. Our bondholders
won't end up getting title to our national parks and the
strategic petroleum reserve. No, that's not going to happen.
What will happen?
I can't say for certain. But here's what I know: It's not a good
idea for the world's largest debtor and the world's strongest
military power to go broke. Bad things happen in democracies
when the government goes broke. At the very least, our creditors
will demand much higher interest rates and abandon the use of
our currency. That's going to devastate our standard of living.
These facts and figures should cause you to wake up and think
about what you're doing with your savings. Here's a hint: Don't
save dollars. And don't count on whatever the government has
promised to you, whether it is a retirement or medical care. The
government is bankrupt. It won't be able to deliver.
Crux Note: The S&A Digest comes FREE with a
subscription to Porter Stansberry's Investment Advisory. In just
the past few years, Porter has shown readers how to make huge
gains in gold stocks... how to profit from the demise of Freddie
Mac, Fannie Mae, and General Motors... and the best ways to
protect themselves from inflation and the unavoidable collapse
of the dollar.
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